Monday, April 11, 2011

Cargo Cults, Causality, Capitalism (and Mathematics) (Part I)

It is interesting how the strangest discussions can produce some of the most amazing moments of clarity and insight.

I will always remember the local bus ride from Bhubaneswar to Puri, not so much because of the scenery (which was quite amazing!), but because of the subject matter of the conversation. I was sitting with my traveling cohort in the bus, trying to think of something to pass the time. So I turned to him and asked him 'What do you think the strangest possible name for a city could be?' We threw around a few names and had a few laughs, and then he mentioned one name that I cannot repeat here because the title was so ironic and hilarious in so many ways, that it quickly went from a discussion about random names to analyzing this odd phrase. And from that phrase grew an idea for a novel that could be used as an allegory to produce a rather damning critique of the practices of the rich global elite. As the plot got more and more absurd the more 'accurate' the metaphor was, my friend mentioned that he wanted some place in it for some sort of cargo cult (as he thought that this would be a rather hilariously naive sequence of events to add). At the time, it seemed a bit daunting to know how to fit it all in (and he soon put me in sole charge of any sort of novel that might come of it, so I tried to develop the idea and still believe it can and should be written once I get the time to do so, hence why I would rather not reveal the phrase in question).

But recently I was reminded of this with regard to the situation in Libya and Africa in general. I started using the term 'cargo cult' to describe a lot of American foreign policy because by looking through history, it seems that in the post-WWII era almost every coup, coup attempt, or other such means to usurp power in the third world has some connection to the United States (and, it seems, the World Bank and IMF are not far behind) either as supporting it or helping to defeat it: Chile, Brazil, Congo, Rwanda, Burundi, Uganda, Vietnam, Korea, Philippines, Nicaragua, Angola, Mozambique, Namibia, South Africa, Iraq, Iran, the list goes on.

And in the aftermath of these we see the hypocrisy surrounding American claims for 'freedom', 'democracy', and 'overthrowing of dictators'. Few Chileans, for example, will forget the brutality of Pinochet, few Congolese will forget the personality cult and autocracy of Mobutu, few Egyptians will forget the exploitation by Mubarak. And of course, there is the perpetual eye-sore of Vietnam: when I was in HCMC/Saigon, I did the rounds in the Vietnam War Museum and literally left in tears. Of course, the term cargo cult refers to the ill-conceived beliefs of various tribes of Pacific Islanders throughout history believing that foreign explorers were spirits, etc., but it is also idiomatically used (in the words of wikipedia) "to mean any group of people who imitate the superficial exterior of a process or system without having any understanding of the underlying substance". In other words, for some reason (well... not 'some reason', but mostly due to the overinflated Western media spreading its hegemonic pro-capitalist message) too often people see the United States as some sort of unbiased saviour and morally righteous actor in a Manichean interpretation of the global world. If only they would learn a bit of history.

Anyway, where philosophy really kicks in here is the fact that what underlines cargo cults is an egregious logical flaw: P implies Q is obviously not logically equivalent to Q implies P, and moreover, the association of two events does not necessarily imply logical dependence. So we have that explorers come and bring strange goods to the islands, but that doesnt imply that strange goods on an island implies explorers came (as in, instead of making religious sacrifices, these goods could be scientifically assessed to try to recreate them without 'foreign intervention'), nor does it mean that a certain religious ceremony being performed on the day that said explorers arrive implies that the perpetuation of said ceremony will imply that said explorers will arrive again. The same ideas can be applied to American foreign policy: even if American foreign policy produces 'change' (irrespective of one's assessment of the qualities of said change), this does not mean that some sort of change requires the intervention of a Western power. Moreover, 'change' and 'good' are not always synonymous, and history shows that there are many 'changes' that the US has brought about that really aren't so 'good'.

For example, it is clear from the difference I see in the manner in which some/many South Africans conduct themselves socially versus the ease in which other Africans conduct themselves socially that the apartheid history has had a major effect on South Africa. A brief look into the books of history shows that the Soweto uprisings in 1976 should have spelled the beginning of the end for apartheid in South Africa. By December of 1980, the Carter administration had almost convinced Botha, the leader of the apartheid government, to grant Namibia its independence, and this would likely have had a domino effect on political policies in South Africa in general. A month later, Botha suddenly made an about turn. The reason? Reagan became president and threw his weight behind Botha's racist regime in order to have a staunchly anti-communist ally to undermine socialism in southern Africa and possible give Reagan an upper hand in the Cold War: cue a lengthy civil war in Angola, and a perpetuation of apartheid in South Africa for a further ten years. And, of course, cue the 'sacrifices' for the sake of perpetuating American self-interest. Interestingly, a main reason for Botha relinquishing control of the ruling party was because of a heart attack he experienced two days before Reagan's second term ended. He expected an individual that backed his apartheid approach would come into power, but he guessed wrong and De Klerk gained control of the National Party, the catalyst for the end of apartheid. Although Botha bitterly maintained his hold on the presidency for a further six months, he relinquished control in protest when he realized that he no longer had any power.

If one agrees that the perpetuation of apartheid in South Africa was not 'a good', but one doubts the role that the US played, they can read various letters between Reagan and Botha that are available in the public domain. Reagan's response to Botha includes an opinion that criticisms of South African policy (i.e. apartheid) are “over-simplified or distorted notions and frequently from sources that have little to brag about themselves,” maintaining it was “all the more imperative that pro-democratic blacks join – and be seen to join – [Botha] in building a new South Africa.” On the other hand, he offers the following 'political support': “it will be possible for my administration, our business community and key allies of the United States to play a more constructive role” in backing the South African apartheid government. Of course, this was dependent on various 'conditions' being met, including support for Angolan free-marketer Jonas Savimbi (which resulted in South Africa invading Angola and contributing to a decade-long civil war) in order to "erode Soviet political influence over Angola", and a commitment to the Nkomati Accord, which basically monitored and put pressure on socialist moves in Mozambique and, indirectly, in neighbouring Zimbabwe.

If one STILL does not agree, that individual should note that the passing of the Comprehensive Anti-Apartheid Act passed in 1986 by the US administration, which really turned the thumbscrews on the Botha government by isolating South Africa economically, was vetoed by Reagan. It is the only instance in the 20th century when a presidential veto on foreign policy was overturned by the necessary two-thirds majority in Congress.

ANYWAY, after I thought about it in this way, I realized that perhaps a cargo cult really is needed in that novel... if I ever get around to writing it.

Tune in later (maybe tomorrow if I get around to it) for Part II, which, I promise, will include some talk of mathematics (YAY!) and will not include tirades that 'vilify' those involved in enacting and carrying out the policies of Team America World Police.

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